Monday, May 14, 2012

Will Greece leave the Eurozone?

As we enter the second week after the Greek elections and still with no party being able to form a coalition and make a majority, what happens next? If the existing party numbers are unable to find any polarity and join a coalition, do they get forced back to the polls and have an election over? The results are nothing new or shocking. The people of Europe seem to have voted with their feet against the ongoing cuts and austerity measures. Here in the UK we had similar results with Labour winning hundreds of seats from the Tories and LibDems. They did say that whoever won power this term, would be disliked for their actions, but the change in spending habits was inevitable. Back to Greece, they no longer seem to be talking about "if" Greece will leave the Euro but rather "when" they will leave it. The problem seems to be, there is no pre set way or any historical record of anyone ever having done it. In fact the only thing in the existing treaties is an option for countries to leave the Union. How can Greece ever pay back its enormous debts when it can not de-value its currency as it no longer has a central bank and has to rely on ECB to regulate its interest rates. How much would a new Greek Drachma be worth? What would adopting a new old currency mean for Greek people? An immediate devaluation of their currency would lead to astronomical inflation in the short term, but would this be worse than the enforced austerity measures that Angela Merckle and the other European Power Houses are demanding? To think that, not so long ago, when Gordon Brown snatched power at Number 10 (Remember we didn't get to vote on it, Tony left, he took over), he signed over more powers to Europe and there was talk that with the devalued pound not far off par with the Euro, that he was trying to get us aligned so we too would join the Euro. Well thank heavens that never happened. Sure it would be nice to know exactly how much currency is worth wherever you go in the Eurozone but without our own central bank we would have been up the creek without a paddle. If Greece does find a way to exit the Euro, would they be the only one? Would perhaps Portugal or Spain be hot on their heals? I guess time will tell. Meanwhile I am keeping a keen eye on the GBP/EUR exchange rate. Its been rising steadily recently based around the turmoil in the Eurozone. Watch this space!

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